Sharper Side

Our record

Every call, right and wrong.

Published before kick-off, scored against exactly what was published, and never edited afterwards. The misses stay up.

133 of 186
calls came in
every call published before kick-off since 2026-09-04, scored against exactly what was published. 53 missed, and they are all below.
72%
of published calls right
10 days of readings. Mixed call types have different difficulty; compare the groups below. No-calls are excluded.
69 of 107
points on the cards that held
each card's reasons, quoted back the next morning and marked against what the match showed.

Compare like with like

A match-win call, a call that a named team will not win, and a qualification call describe different events. Their success rates have different baselines. The combined percentage does not establish predictive superiority.

Published eventCallsRightWrongRate
Match win88533560%
Named team will not win80651581%
Qualification1815383%

These are live headline-event counts. The historical probability evaluation below is a separate test, against competition base rates.

By week

WeekDaysCallsRightWrong
31 Aug – 6 Sep1129375%
7–13 Sep71741245071%

By competition

CompetitionCallsRightWrong
Champions League1412286%
CAF Champions League129375%
Championship1210283%
Eredivisie127558%
Segunda División107370%
Serie A108280%
Bundesliga96367%
La Liga96367%
Saudi Pro League95456%
Premier League85362%
Super League 185362%
Jupiler Pro League76186%
Ligue 176186%
Primeira Liga73443%
CAF Confederation Cup65183%
Cypriot First Division64267%
Serie B660100%
Süper Lig62433%
Eliteserien54180%
2. Bundesliga43175%
Liga Profesional440100%
Superliga42250%
UAE Pro League31233%
5 other competitions, fewer than 3 calls each87188%
Which ones

EFL Cup (2 of 2), Scottish Premiership (2 of 2), Ukrainian Premier League (2 of 2), de.2 (0 of 1), ua.1 (1 of 1).

Day by day

Sunday 13 September 41 of 53

Manchester United v Manchester CityPremier LeagueManchester United will not win0–1right

Manchester City had a man sent off in the 23rd, with the match still level and most of the match to play. Manchester United had 16 shots to Manchester City's 6, 3 on target.

  • Manchester City hold more of the ball than most in this division, create more shots, and allow fewer.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed.

Coventry v BrightonPremier LeagueCoventry will not win0–5right

Coventry had a man sent off in the 53rd, with it 0-2 and most of the match to play. Brighton were three up by the 70th.

  • Coventry get 17 shots a game, more than most in their division last season.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Levante v BarcelonaLa LigaBarcelona to win2–4right

Little between them on chances: 13 shots to 12. Joan García made 4 saves for Barcelona.

  • Barcelona control games rather than trade them: more of the ball than most in this division, more shots, and fewer allowed.

3 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Celta Vigo v MalagaLa LigaCelta Vigo to win1–1wrong

Celta Vigo led in the 41st and were pegged back, conceding once in the 83rd. Alfonso Herrero made 4 saves for Malaga.

  • Celta Vigo are without Iglesias, Febas and two others; their attack is measurably thinner than it was.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It held. The match still went the other way.

Real Sociedad v Atletico MadridLa LigaReal Sociedad will not win0–3right

Atletico Madrid were three up by the 90th. Atletico Madrid had 13 shots to Real Sociedad's 8, 5 on target.

  • Atlético Madrid win five corners a game, more than most in La Liga.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Getafe v Deportivo La CorunaLa LigaToo close to separate1–1no call

Getafe scored first, in the 66th; Deportivo La Coruna levelled it in the 78th. P. Aubameyang (Deportivo La Coruna) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.2.

  • Getafe take nine shots a game, fewer than most sides in La Liga and a constraint on their attacking threat.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 0 of the 1 points showed.

Napoli v BolognaSerie ABologna will not win1–0right

Napoli had 15 shots to Bologna's 5, 3 on target. Stanislav Lobotka (Napoli) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.6.

  • Bologna are without Orsolini, Zortea and two others, which thins their attack.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Sassuolo v JuventusSerie ASassuolo will not win3–2wrong

Sassuolo scored in the 89th, late enough that there was no time to answer it. Sassuolo won it in added time.

  • Juventus control games rather than trade them: more of the ball, more shots, fewer allowed.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

Lecce v MonzaSerie AToo close to separate3–2no call

Monza had 19 shots to Lecce's 7, 11 on target. Wladimiro Falcone made 8 saves for Lecce.

  • Monza are without Ciurria, Pessina and three others; that hole is already cut into the figures above.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said held.

SV Elversberg v Bayern MünchenBundesligaBayern München to win1–2right

Bayern München had 28 shots to SV Elversberg's 5, 6 on target. H. Kane (Bayern München) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 9.0.

RB Leipzig v Hamburger SVBundesligaRB Leipzig to win5–0right

RB Leipzig were three up by the 72nd. RB Leipzig had 19 shots to Hamburger SV's 10, 6 on target.

  • RB Leipzig are without Baumgartner and Reitz, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Lille v Estac TroyesLigue 1Lille to win2–0right

Lille had 13 shots to Estac Troyes's 8, 6 on target. P. Beach made 4 saves for Estac Troyes.

  • Estac Troyes are without Ifnaoui, Titi and three others, which thins their attack.
  • Lille give up nine shots a game, fewer than most in Ligue 1, so Estac Troyes face a difficult task to score.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

All 2 showed.

Stade Brestois 29 v Paris Saint GermainLigue 1Paris Saint Germain to win0–1right

Little between them on chances: 16 shots to 15. M. Safonov made 5 saves for Paris Saint Germain.

  • Paris Saint Germain control games rather than trade them: more of the ball, more shots, fewer allowed.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Le Mans v LensLigue 1Le Mans will not win2–2right

Lens levelled it in the 51st. E. Hatfout made 4 saves for Le Mans.

  • Le Mans are without Colas, Buades and four others; their attack is already weakened in our forecast.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It held.

PSV Eindhoven v Sparta RotterdamEredivisiePSV Eindhoven to win4–1right

Sparta Rotterdam led in the 15th and lost it. PSV Eindhoven were three up by the 88th.

Excelsior v UtrechtEredivisieToo close to separate1–2no call

Utrecht won it in added time. Little between them on chances: 10 shots to 12.

Sheffield Utd v WolvesChampionshipToo close to separate0–1no call

Wolves won it in the 90th. Wolves had 17 shots to Sheffield Utd's 6, 3 on target.

Club Brugge KV v AntwerpJupiler Pro LeagueClub Brugge KV to win3–1right

T. Nozawa made 6 saves for Antwerp. Jan Virgili (Club Brugge KV) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.2.

  • Club Brugge KV take 22 shots a game, more than most teams in the Jupiler Pro League.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

1. FC Heidenheim v Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga1. FC Heidenheim to win1–0right

Holstein Kiel had a man sent off in the 50th, with the match still level and most of the match to play. 1. FC Heidenheim won it in the 83rd.

  • 1. FC Heidenheim give up 15 shots a game, more than most in their division last season.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

VfL Osnabrück v Hertha BSC2. BundesligaToo close to separate1–3no call

J. Krumrey made 4 saves for VfL Osnabrück. J. Gómez (VfL Osnabrück) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.0.

Karlsruher SC v Energie Cottbus2. BundesligaKarlsruher SC to win0–3wrong

Energie Cottbus were three up by the 62nd. H. Bernat made 7 saves for Karlsruher SC.

  • Karlsruher SC give up sixteen shots a game, more than most in the division.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

Silkeborg v ViborgSuperligaSilkeborg will not win1–1right

Silkeborg scored first, in the 11th; Viborg levelled it in the 56th. K. Kiilerich made 4 saves for Viborg.

  • Viborg get sixteen shots a game, more than most in the Superliga.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Lyngby v SonderjyskeSuperligaToo close to separate1–1no call

Lyngby scored first, in the 6th; Sonderjyske levelled it in the 75th. Little between them on chances: 19 shots to 18.

Sporting Gijon v EldenseSegunda DivisiónSporting Gijon to win0–1wrong

Guille Rosas (Sporting Gijon) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.5. Wrong on the day, not on the read: Sporting Gijon had 12 shots and put 3 on target.

Viking v Kristiansund BKEliteserienViking to win8–1right

Viking were three up by the 20th. Viking had 28 shots to Kristiansund BK's 12, 13 on target.

  • Kristiansund BK have had less of the ball than most in the Eliteserien.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Heerenveen v TelstarEredivisieTelstar will not win0–0right

Heerenveen had 23 shots to Telstar's 12, 6 on target. R. Koeman made 6 saves for Telstar.

Polessya v Livyi BerehUkrainian Premier LeaguePolessya to win1–0right

Polessya scored first, in the 37th, and were never behind. The reading held.

Simba v Be Forward WanderersCAF Champions LeagueSimba to go through6–1right

Simba scored first, in the 8th, and were never behind. Simba were three up by the 34th.

Randers FC v OdenseSuperligaOdense will not win1–2wrong

Randers FC made a change in the 21st, which is early for a substitution. Nikolai Soyset Hopland was sent off for Randers FC in added time.

  • Odense give up seventeen shots a game, more than most in the Superliga.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome also differed from the reading.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v KasımpaşaSüper LigToo close to separate1–2no call

Little between them on chances: 15 shots to 16. Andreas Gianniotis made 4 saves for Kasımpaşa.

  • Kasımpaşa get six shots a game, fewer than most in the Süper Lig.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 0 of the 1 points showed.

Genk v GentJupiler Pro LeagueGent will not win1–1right

Gent scored first, in the 10th; Genk levelled it in the 47th. Little between them on chances: 17 shots to 16.

  • Genk get nineteen shots a game, more than most sides in the Jupiler Pro League.

3 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Valladolid v OviedoSegunda DivisiónValladolid will not win0–3right

Oviedo were three up by the 56th. Little between them on chances: 13 shots to 12.

  • Valladolid give up nine shots a game, fewer than most in the Segunda División.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

PEC Zwolle v FeyenoordEredivisieFeyenoord to win0–7right

Feyenoord were three up by the 40th. Feyenoord had 26 shots to PEC Zwolle's 6, 11 on target.

  • PEC Zwolle are without Namli, Floranus and two others, already reflected in the figures above.
  • PEC Zwolle take eleven shots a game, fewer than most sides in the Eredivisie, which reflects the strain on their attack.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

All 2 showed.

Rukinzo v Durban CityCAF Confederation CupDurban City to go through1–2right

Durban City scored first, in the 1st, and were never behind. The reading held.

Nations v DiarraCAF Confederation CupDiarra will not win1–1right

Diarra led and were pegged back in the 84th. The reading held.

Rivers United v San-PédroCAF Champions LeagueRivers United to go through2–2no call

San-Pédro scored first, in the 14th. San-Pédro led and were pegged back in the 88th.

KFUM Oslo v AalesundEliteserienKFUM Oslo to win2–1right

Aalesund had 19 shots to KFUM Oslo's 9, 3 on target. H. M. Reed (Aalesund) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.1.

Kalamata v Volos NFCSuper League 1Too close to separate3–1no call

Volos NFC led in the 26th and lost it. I. Gelios made 4 saves for Kalamata.

  • Volos NFC take a smaller share of their shots from inside the box than most in the Super League 1.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 0 of the 1 points showed.

Ham-Kam v MoldeEliteserienHam-Kam will not win1–5right

Molde scored first, in the 5th. Molde were three up by the 84th.

  • Molde are without Hestad, Stenevik and six others — a big hole in their attack.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Start v BrannEliteserienBrann to win2–0wrong

M. Dyngeland made 4 saves for Brann. O. Toure (Start) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.2.

  • Brann win six corners a game, more than most in the Eliteserien.
  • Brann are without Holm, Gudmundsson and four others, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

All 2 showed. The match still went the other way.

Avellino v PalermoSerie BAvellino will not win1–1right

Avellino scored first, in the 60th; Palermo levelled it in the 63rd. Avellino had 15 shots to Palermo's 9, 5 on target.

  • Palermo win five corners a game, more than most in Serie B.
  • Palermo get 14 shots a game, more than most in Serie B.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

None of the 2 showed. The outcome still matched the reading.

Mantova v SampdoriaSerie BSampdoria will not win2–0right

Mantova scored first, in the 58th, and were never behind. F. Ruocco (Mantova) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.2.

FC Nordsjaelland v AarhusSuperligaToo close to separate2–0no call

FC Nordsjaelland scored first, in the 76th, and were never behind. J. Lähteenmäki (FC Nordsjaelland) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.7.

  • FC Nordsjaelland have had more of the ball than most in this division, while Aarhus's opponents usually have less.
  • Aarhus are without Yakob, Poulsen and three others, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Horoya v JS SaouraCAF Champions LeagueJS Saoura to go through3–1wrong

Horoya scored a penalty in the 17th, through Y. Barry. Horoya scored in the 90th, late enough that there was no time to answer it.

Stade Malien Bamako v ColombeCAF Champions LeagueToo close to separate0–0no call

Goalless. No call was published; the sides were too close to separate.

Asteras Tripolis v AEK Athens FCSuper League 1AEK Athens FC to win1–1wrong

AEK Athens FC led in the 21st and were pegged back, conceding once in the 31st. AEK Athens FC had 21 shots to Asteras Tripolis's 13, 3 on target.

  • AEK Athens FC control games rather than trade them: more of the ball than most in this division, more shots, and fewer allowed.
  • AEK Athens FC win five corners a game, more than most in the Super League 1.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

All 2 showed. The match still went the other way.

AEK Larnaca v PafosCypriot First DivisionAEK Larnaca will not win0–1right

Pafos scored first, in the 62nd, and were never behind. The reading held.

NEOM v Al-FatehSaudi Pro LeagueAl-Fateh will not win4–2right

NEOM had a man sent off in added time, with the match still level and most of the match to play. NEOM had 21 shots to Al-Fateh's 13, 6 on target.

Mallorca v SabadellSegunda DivisiónSabadell will not win2–0right

Arnau Tenas made 4 saves for Mallorca. Fuentes (Mallorca) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 9.1.

Zulte Waregem v CharleroiJupiler Pro LeagueToo close to separate0–1no call

Charleroi scored first, in the 29th, and were never behind. Little between them on chances: 15 shots to 15.

Benfica v GIL VicentePrimeira LigaBenfica to win3–1right

GIL Vicente led in the 7th and lost it. Benfica had 17 shots to GIL Vicente's 4, 5 on target.

  • Benfica control games rather than trade them: more of the ball, more shots, and fewer allowed.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Arouca v Santa ClaraPrimeira LigaToo close to separate1–2no call

Santa Clara had a man sent off in the 85th, with it 1-2. Little between them on chances: 10 shots to 12.

  • Santa Clara give up ten shots a game, fewer than most in the Primeira Liga.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Olympiakos v Omonia 29is MaiouCypriot First DivisionOmonia 29is Maiou will not win3–3right

Omonia 29is Maiou scored first, in the 30th. Omonia 29is Maiou led and were pegged back in added time.

CS Sfaxien v Shooting StarsCAF Confederation CupCS Sfaxien to win2–0right

CS Sfaxien scored first, in the 27th, and were never behind. The reading held.

Galatasaray v KocaelisporSüper LigGalatasaray to win1–0right

Galatasaray had 29 shots to Kocaelispor's 12, 9 on target. Serhat Öztaşdelen made 8 saves for Kocaelispor.

  • Kocaelispor are without Petkovic and Rivas, which thins their attack.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Pyramids FC v GOR MahiaCAF Champions LeaguePyramids FC to go through5–1right

Pyramids FC scored first, in the 27th, and were never behind. Pyramids FC were three up by the 45th.

Amed v BaşakşehirSüper LigAmed will not win5–0wrong

An own goal in added time put Amed ahead. Amed were three up by the 55th.

  • Başakşehir get fourteen shots a game, more than most sides in the Süper Lig.

It did not show. The outcome also differed from the reading.

Nouadhibou v VipersCAF Champions LeagueToo close to separate0–0no call

Goalless. No call was published; the sides were too close to separate.

RAAL La Louvière v KortrijkJupiler Pro LeagueKortrijk will not win3–0right

RAAL La Louvière were three up by the 85th. RAAL La Louvière had 17 shots to Kortrijk's 10, 6 on target.

Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserienSarpsborg 08 FF will not win1–1right

Fredrikstad scored first, in the 19th; Sarpsborg 08 FF levelled it in the 28th. Fredrikstad had 14 shots to Sarpsborg 08 FF's 6, 11 of them from inside the box.

  • Sarpsborg 08 FF win four corners a game, fewer than most sides manage in the division.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Sarmiento Junin v Belgrano CordobaLiga ProfesionalSarmiento Junin will not win1–1right

Belgrano Cordoba had 17 shots to Sarmiento Junin's 9, 7 on target. T. Ayala made 6 saves for Sarmiento Junin.

  • Sarmiento Junin give up 13 shots a game, more than most, and this vulnerability could undo their home record.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Tigre v Rosario CentralLiga ProfesionalToo close to separate0–1no call

Rosario Central had a man sent off in the 76th, with it 0-1. Little between them on chances: 13 shots to 12.

  • Tigre have had less of the ball than most in the Liga Profesional, limiting their control.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Al Diriyah v AbhaSaudi Pro LeagueAl Diriyah to win0–0wrong

C. Mbemba (Al Diriyah) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.3. A draw. Al Diriyah needed a goal more and did not find it.

Al Riyadh v Al KholoodSaudi Pro LeagueAl Riyadh will not win2–0wrong

Al Riyadh scored first, in the 65th, and were never behind. R. Abascal (Al Riyadh) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.0.

  • Al Riyadh have had less of the ball than most in the Saudi Pro League.
  • Al Kholood win four corners a game, fewer than most in the Saudi Pro League.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

1 of 2 showed; the outcome differed from the reading.

Kifisia v LevadiakosSuper League 1Kifisia will not win0–0right

Kifisia had 10 shots to Levadiakos's 5, 4 on target. N. Eliasi made 4 saves for Levadiakos.

  • Kifisia win four corners a game, fewer than most in the Super League 1.
  • Kifisia give up eight shots a game, fewer than most sides in the Super League 1.

1 of 2 showed; the outcome matched the reading.

PAOK v Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1PAOK to win2–0right

Little between them on chances: 13 shots to 15. Ricardo Velho made 4 saves for Aris Thessalonikis.

  • PAOK give up eight shots a game, fewer than most in the Super League 1.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Panathinaikos v PanetolikosSuper League 1Panathinaikos to win3–0right

Panathinaikos were three up by the 90th. Panathinaikos had 12 shots to Panetolikos's 3, 5 on target.

Tenerife v LeganesSegunda DivisiónToo close to separate2–0no call

Little between them on chances: 11 shots to 10. Enric Gallego (Tenerife) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.2.

Famalicao v Sporting CPPrimeira LigaSporting CP to win1–1wrong

Sporting CP led in the 81st and were pegged back, conceding once in added time. Roméo Beney was sent off for Famalicao in the 87th.

Argentinos JRS v Gimnasia L.P.Liga ProfesionalArgentinos JRS to go through1–1no call

Gimnasia L.P. scored first, in the 26th; Argentinos JRS levelled it in the 74th. Argentinos JRS had a man sent off in the 41st, with it 0-1 and most of the match to play.

Saturday 12 September 40 of 64

Crystal Palace v IpswichPremier LeagueCrystal Palace to win2–3wrong

Crystal Palace led in the 14th and lost it. Crystal Palace had a man sent off in the 34th, with the match still level and most of the match to play.

Liverpool v FulhamPremier LeagueLiverpool to win0–0wrong

J. Jacquet (Liverpool) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.5. A draw. Liverpool needed a goal more and did not find it.

  • Liverpool win seven corners a game, more than most in the Premier League.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome also differed from the reading.

Sunderland v ArsenalPremier LeagueArsenal to win0–2right

Sunderland finished with ten after a red card in added time, by which time it was already 0-1. Little between them on chances: 12 shots to 11.

Chelsea v Hull CityPremier LeagueHull City will not win2–2right

Chelsea levelled it in the 66th. Little between them on chances: 12 shots to 14.

  • Chelsea win seven corners a game, more than most sides in the Premier League.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Aston Villa v Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueNottingham Forest will not win1–2wrong

Nottingham Forest had 22 shots to Aston Villa's 7, 7 on target. Z. Suzuki made 5 saves for Aston Villa.

  • Nottingham Forest have held less of the ball than most sides in the Premier League this season.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

Bournemouth v BrentfordPremier LeagueToo close to separate2–2no call

Brentford levelled it in the 56th. Bournemouth had 20 shots to Brentford's 8, 10 on target.

  • Bournemouth win seven corners a game, more than most in the Premier League.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 0 of the 1 points showed.

Tottenham v EvertonPremier LeagueToo close to separate0–0no call

Little between them on chances: 14 shots to 12. A. Robertson (Tottenham) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.3.

  • Tottenham give up chances from close in at a rate above the Premier League norm, a structural weakness.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Real Madrid v Rayo VallecanoLa LigaReal Madrid to win4–1right

Real Madrid were three up by the 35th. E. Audero made 7 saves for Rayo Vallecano.

Athletic Club v ElcheLa LigaAthletic Club to win1–1wrong

Athletic Club had 19 shots to Elche's 3, 3 on target. I. Williams (Athletic Club) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.6.

  • Athletic Club are without Guruzeta, Canales and two others, a big hole in their attack.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held. The match still went the other way.

Osasuna v EspanyolLa LigaEspanyol will not win0–2wrong

Espanyol scored inside 15 minutes — in the 3rd — so Osasuna were chasing the game from the start. Osasuna had 11 shots to Espanyol's 6, 4 on target.

Racing Santander v AlavesLa LigaToo close to separate2–1no call

Racing Santander had a man sent off in the 89th, with it 2-1. Julen Agirrezabala made 7 saves for Racing Santander.

Atalanta v CagliariSerie AAtalanta to win1–2wrong

Cagliari scored a penalty in the 61st, through D. Maldini. Atalanta had 22 shots to Cagliari's 5, 4 on target.

  • Atalanta win six corners a game, more than most in Serie A, though corners alone do not win matches.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome also differed from the reading.

Genoa v FrosinoneSerie AToo close to separate1–1no call

Genoa had a man sent off in the 86th, with it 1-1. Justin Bijlow made 5 saves for Genoa.

  • Frosinone win five corners a game, more than most sides in their division last season.
  • Frosinone get fourteen shots a game, more than most in their division last season.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Lazio v AC MilanSerie ALazio will not win2–2right

AC Milan levelled it in the 67th. AC Milan had 16 shots to Lazio's 8, 7 on target.

  • Lazio win four corners a game, fewer than most in Serie A.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed.

Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07BundesligaBorussia Dortmund to win3–0right

Borussia Dortmund were three up by the 89th. N. Noll made 5 saves for SC Paderborn 07.

  • Borussia Dortmund give up nine shots a game, fewer than most in the Bundesliga, but one mistake opens the door.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

LNZ Cherkasy v Obolon'-Brovarua.1LNZ Cherkasy to win3–1right

LNZ Cherkasy scored first, in the 10th, and were never behind. The reading held.

VfL Bochum v SpVgg Greuther Fürthde.2VfL Bochum to win1–1wrong

VfL Bochum led in the 16th and were pegged back, conceding once in the 71st. VfL Bochum made a change in the 30th, which is early for a substitution.

  • VfL Bochum win four corners a game, fewer than most in the 2. Bundesliga.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

Eintracht Braunschweig v Dynamo Dresdende.2Too close to separate2–2no call

Dynamo Dresden levelled it in the 72nd. R. Hoffmann made 4 saves for Eintracht Braunschweig.

1. FC Magdeburg v 1. FC Kaiserslauternde.2Too close to separate3–0no call

1. FC Magdeburg were three up by the 53rd. J. Krahl made 7 saves for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

  • 1. FC Kaiserslautern get nine shots a game, fewer than most in the 2. Bundesliga.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 0 of the 1 points showed.

West Brom v QPRChampionshipQPR will not win1–1right

QPR scored first, in the 38th; West Brom levelled it in the 41st. West Brom had 12 shots to QPR's 4, 5 on target.

  • QPR are without Kone, Kemper and four others, a loss that has already shaped our attacking figures above.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Derby v BirminghamChampionshipToo close to separate1–2no call

Derby led in the 40th and lost it. Little between them on chances: 18 shots to 19.

  • Birmingham give up twelve shots a game, fewer than most in the Championship, and carry defensive strength into this fixture.
  • Derby are without Bilbija, Morris and six others — a big hole in their attack — already in the figures above.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 0 of the 2 points showed.

Bolton v CardiffChampionshipToo close to separate1–0no call

Bolton won it in the 90th. Cardiff had 17 shots to Bolton's 7, 10 on target.

  • Cardiff are without Davies, Chambers and three others, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said held.

FC Andorra v Real Sociedad IISegunda DivisiónFC Andorra to win1–3wrong

Real Sociedad II scored inside 15 minutes — in the 11th — so FC Andorra were chasing the game from the start. Aitor Fraga made 6 saves for Real Sociedad II.

  • FC Andorra control games rather than trade them, holding more possession and shots while allowing fewer.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

Tusker v Al Ahli Wad MedaniCAF Confederation CupAl Ahli Wad Medani to go through1–0wrong

Tusker scored first, in the 62nd, and were never behind. Wrong. The score is the whole of what we can say.

Sudtirol v ModenaSerie BToo close to separate1–1no call

Sudtirol led and were pegged back in the 88th. Modena had 18 shots to Sudtirol's 11, 8 on target.

Young Africans v Gaborone UnitedCAF Champions LeagueYoung Africans to go through2–1right

Young Africans scored first, in the 7th, and were never behind. The reading held.

Vicenza Virtus v Juve StabiaSerie BToo close to separate1–1no call

Vicenza Virtus scored first, in the 52nd; Juve Stabia levelled it in the 78th. Juve Stabia had 14 shots to Vicenza Virtus's 7, 7 on target.

  • Juve Stabia get nine shots a game, fewer than most in Serie B, so may struggle to create.
  • Juve Stabia win four corners a game, fewer than most in Serie B, yet still sit close on goals expected.

No call was published; 0 of the 2 points showed.

Power Dynamos v Al MerreikhCAF Champions LeaguePower Dynamos to win0–1wrong

Al Merreikh scored first, in the 51st, and were never behind. Wrong. The score is the whole of what we can say.

Nsingizini Hotspurs v Scotland MabvukuCAF Champions LeagueScotland Mabvuku to go through0–0right

Goalless. The reading held.

Padova v AscoliSerie BAscoli will not win1–0right

Ascoli had 20 shots to Padova's 11, 5 on target. A. Sorrentino made 5 saves for Padova.

  • Padova give up 16 shots a game, more than most in Serie B, which leaves room for Ascoli to threaten.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Al Hilal Omdurman v Aigle NoirCAF Champions LeagueAl Hilal Omdurman to go through1–0right

Al Hilal Omdurman scored first, in the 43rd, and were never behind. The reading held.

1899 Hoffenheim v VfB StuttgartBundesliga1899 Hoffenheim will not win2–1wrong

1899 Hoffenheim scored inside 15 minutes — in the 13th — so VfB Stuttgart were chasing the game from the start. F. Bredlow made 6 saves for VfB Stuttgart.

  • Hoffenheim win seven corners a game, more than most in the Bundesliga.
  • Hoffenheim get seventeen shots a game, more than most in the Bundesliga.

1 of 2 showed; the outcome differed from the reading.

FC Augsburg v Bayer LeverkusenBundesligaFC Augsburg will not win2–2right

Bayer Leverkusen levelled it in the 89th. Bayer Leverkusen had 30 shots to FC Augsburg's 8, 5 on target.

FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaToo close to separate1–3no call

FSV Mainz 05 had 18 shots to Eintracht Frankfurt's 11, 5 on target. N. Atubolu made 4 saves for Eintracht Frankfurt.

SC Freiburg v Borussia MönchengladbachBundesligaSC Freiburg to win5–0right

Borussia Mönchengladbach had a man sent off in the 52nd, with it 2-0 and most of the match to play. SC Freiburg had 19 shots to Borussia Mönchengladbach's 5, 9 on target.

Watford v Stoke CityChampionshipToo close to separate1–2no call

Stoke City had 18 shots to Watford's 6, 6 on target. F. Ravaglia made 4 saves for Watford.

  • Watford are without Bola, Baah and five others, thinning the attack already in our analysis.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said held.

Middlesbrough v NorwichChampionshipMiddlesbrough to win4–3right

Norwich led in the 1st and lost it. Middlesbrough won it in added time.

  • Middlesbrough control games rather than trade them: more possession and shots than most, fewer conceded.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Blackburn v MillwallChampionshipToo close to separate3–1no call

Millwall scored from the spot in the 51st. Little between them on chances: 18 shots to 16.

Swansea v BurnleyChampionshipSwansea will not win3–1wrong

L. Vigouroux made 5 saves for Swansea. A. Idah (Swansea) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.9.

  • Burnley are without Satpaev, Bruun Larsen and four others; the absences gut their attack.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held. The match still went the other way.

Lillestrom v ValerengaEliteserienToo close to separate2–0no call

Lillestrom scored first, in the 25th, and were never behind. Valerenga had 17 shots to Lillestrom's 7, 3 on target.

  • Valerenga get fifteen shots a game, more than most sides in the Eliteserien.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Samsunspor v Çorum FKSüper LigSamsunspor to win1–5wrong

Çorum FK scored inside 15 minutes — in the 1st — so Samsunspor were chasing the game from the start. Çorum FK were three up by the 69th.

  • Samsunspor are without Watt, Tavsan and five others, a big hole in their attack.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It held. The match still went the other way.

SK Beveren v St. TruidenJupiler Pro LeagueSK Beveren will not win2–0wrong

SK Beveren scored a penalty in the 52nd, through Chris Lokesa. Little between them on chances: 11 shots to 11.

Charlton v PortsmouthChampionshipPortsmouth will not win0–0right

Little between them on chances: 10 shots to 9. M. Pack (Portsmouth) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.2.

Preston v LincolnChampionshipLincoln will not win0–1wrong

Lincoln scored in the 81st, late enough that there was no time to answer it. Little between them on chances: 11 shots to 9.

  • Lincoln are without Melia, Darikwa and one other, which thins their attack.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held. The match still went the other way.

TP Mazembe v MedeamaCAF Champions LeagueTP Mazembe to go through3–1right

TP Mazembe scored first, in the 3rd, and were never behind. The reading held.

Eyüpspor v RizesporSüper LigToo close to separate0–2no call

Rizespor had a man sent off in the 44th, with it 0-1 and most of the match to play. Eyüpspor had 26 shots to Rizespor's 9, 5 on target.

  • Rizespor win five corners a game, more than most in the Süper Lig.
  • Eyüpspor get eleven shots a game, fewer than most in the Süper Lig.

No call was published; 0 of the 2 points showed.

Southampton v Bristol CityChampionshipSouthampton to win4–1right

Southampton were three up by the 85th. Bristol City had 21 shots to Southampton's 10, 6 on target.

Cadiz v Las PalmasSegunda DivisiónCadiz will not win0–1right

Las Palmas had 20 shots to Cadiz's 7, 5 on target. Jokin Ezkieta made 4 saves for Cadiz.

  • Cadiz give up 13 shots a game, more than most in the Segunda División, and Las Palmas exploit that.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed.

Twente v ADO Den HaagEredivisieTwente to win2–0right

Twente had 24 shots to ADO Den Haag's 10, 12 on target. K. Nikiéma made 10 saves for ADO Den Haag.

Nacional v AlvercaPrimeira LigaAlverca will not win1–3wrong

Alverca scored first, in the 34th, and were never behind. Renato Bellucci made 4 saves for Nacional.

Rahimo v Maghreb FèsCAF Champions LeagueMaghreb Fès to go through0–0right

Goalless. The reading held.

Catanzaro v CarrareseSerie BCatanzaro to win1–0right

Catanzaro won it in the 83rd. Catanzaro had 20 shots to Carrarese's 11, 9 of them from inside the box.

Strasbourg v MonacoLigue 1Too close to separate1–1no call

Strasbourg scored first, in the 52nd; Monaco levelled it in the 71st. Little between them on chances: 13 shots to 12.

  • Monaco are without Balogun, Fati and two others — a big hole in their attack — already in the figures above.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said held.

Al Taawon v Al-Hilal Saudi FCSaudi Pro LeagueAl-Hilal Saudi FC to win0–6right

Al-Hilal Saudi FC were three up by the 43rd. Mailson made 5 saves for Al Taawon.

  • Al-Hilal Saudi FC control games rather than trade them: more ball, more shots, fewer conceded.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Djoliba v Club AfricainCAF Champions LeagueClub Africain to go through2–2right

Djoliba scored first, in the 16th. Djoliba led and were pegged back in the 83rd.

Anorthosis v Apoel NicosiaCypriot First DivisionToo close to separate2–1no call

Anorthosis scored from the spot in the 26th. Anorthosis won it in the 90th.

Rayon Sports v PanthèreCAF Confederation CupRayon Sports to go through0–0no call

Goalless. No call was published; the sides were too close to separate.

Karmiotissa v Omonia AradippouCypriot First DivisionOmonia Aradippou will not win1–1right

Karmiotissa led and were pegged back in the 88th. The reading held.

Olympiakos Piraeus v OFISuper League 1Olympiakos Piraeus to win0–1wrong

N. Christogeorgos made 4 saves for OFI. K. Kodro (OFI) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.0.

  • Olympiakos Piraeus control games: more of the ball than most in this division, more shots, fewer allowed.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Al Hilal Port SudanCAF Confederation CupAl Hilal Port Sudan to go through2–1no call

Welwalo Adigrat Uni won it by a goal. No call was published; the sides were too close to separate.

Rosenborg v TromsoEliteserienToo close to separate5–3no call

Rosenborg scored first, in the 3rd, and were never behind. J. Haugaard made 5 saves for Tromso.

  • Rosenborg are without Islamovic, Fossum and three others, a significant loss to their attacking options.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said held.

Kitara v Mogadishu CityCAF Confederation CupKitara to go through2–0right

Kitara scored first, in the 30th, and were never behind. The reading held.

KVC Westerlo v Standard LiegeJupiler Pro LeagueToo close to separate4–2no call

Little between them on chances: 10 shots to 12. A. Jungdal made 4 saves for KVC Westerlo.

  • KVC Westerlo give up chances from close in, a bigger share than most sides face in the Jupiler Pro League.

3 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Granada CF v AlbaceteSegunda DivisiónAlbacete will not win1–1right

Granada CF led and were pegged back in the 81st. Granada CF had 11 shots to Albacete's 6, 3 on target.

  • Albacete have less of the ball than most sides in the Segunda División.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

1. FC Köln v Werder BremenBundesligaWerder Bremen will not win1–1right

1. FC Köln scored first, in the 11th; Werder Bremen levelled it in the 69th. Little between them on chances: 15 shots to 14.

  • Werder Bremen are without Stage, Njinmah and three others — a big hole in their attack — already in the figures above.

It held.

Girona v CastellónSegunda DivisiónGirona to win1–2wrong

Girona led in the 7th and lost it. Girona had a man sent off in the 52nd, with it 1-0 and most of the match to play.

  • Castellón take fifteen shots a game, more than most sides in the Segunda División.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

GO Ahead Eagles v GroningenEredivisieGO Ahead Eagles to win1–1wrong

Groningen led and were pegged back in the 82nd. GO Ahead Eagles had 24 shots to Groningen's 4, 6 on target.

Diambars v ES ZarzisCAF Confederation CupES Zarzis to go through1–0right

Diambars scored first, in the 37th, and were never behind. The reading held.

Omonia Nicosia v Apollon LimassolCypriot First DivisionOmonia Nicosia to win0–0wrong

Goalless. A draw. Omonia Nicosia needed a goal more and did not find it.

Konyaspor v TrabzonsporSüper LigKonyaspor will not win1–0wrong

Konyaspor scored inside 15 minutes — in the 2nd — so Trabzonspor were chasing the game from the start. Bahadır Han Güngördü made 4 saves for Konyaspor.

  • Konyaspor win four corners a game, fewer than most in the Süper Lig.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

Casa Pia v FC PortoPrimeira LigaFC Porto to win1–4right

Casa Pia led in the 43rd and lost it. FC Porto were three up by the 90th.

Alanyaspor v GöztepeSüper LigToo close to separate2–2no call

Alanyaspor levelled it in the 75th. Rhaldney (Göztepe) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.6.

Cesena v CremoneseSerie BCesena will not win2–2right

Cremonese had 19 shots to Cesena's 8, 6 on target. F. Bonazzoli (Cremonese) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.5.

  • Cesena give up fourteen shots a game, more than most in Serie B.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Independ. Rivadavia v AldosiviLiga ProfesionalIndepend. Rivadavia to go through4–3right

Aldosivi had 25 shots to Independ. Rivadavia's 15, 9 on target. Nicolás Bolcato made 6 saves for Independ. Rivadavia.

Estudiantes L.P. v PlatenseLiga ProfesionalEstudiantes L.P. to go through2–1right

Estudiantes L.P. won it in added time. J. Cozzani made 8 saves for Platense.

Iraklis 1908 v AtromitosSuper League 1Iraklis 1908 will not win1–1right

Atromitos scored first, in the 24th; Iraklis 1908 levelled it in the 73rd. S. Tsiloulis (Atromitos) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.0.

Fortuna Sittard v AjaxEredivisieAjax to win1–5right

Ajax were three up by the 79th. Ajax had 27 shots to Fortuna Sittard's 8, 11 on target.

Al Shabab v Al-FayhaSaudi Pro LeagueAl-Fayha will not win0–0right

Al Shabab had 14 shots to Al-Fayha's 5, 3 on target. M. Diaw (Al Shabab) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.2.

  • Al-Fayha give up fifteen shots a game, more than most sides in the Saudi Pro League.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-NassrSaudi Pro LeagueAl-Nassr to win1–1wrong

Al-Nassr had 15 shots to Al Khaleej Saihat's 5, 10 of them from inside the box. Omar Mascarell (Al Khaleej Saihat) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.9.

FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg2. BundesligaToo close to separate1–0no call

FC St. Pauli won it in the 88th. FC St. Pauli had 18 shots to VfL Wolfsburg's 10, 4 on target.

Le Havre v AngersLigue 1Angers will not win0–0right

Le Havre had 15 shots to Angers's 9, 6 on target. Anthony Lopes made 6 saves for Angers.

Paris FC v LyonLigue 1Too close to separate0–0no call

D. Greif made 4 saves for Lyon. D. Greif (Lyon) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.3.

OH Leuven v Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro LeagueOH Leuven will not win1–1right

OH Leuven led and were pegged back in added time. D. Opoku (OH Leuven) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.5.

  • Cercle Brugge take more shots than most in the league despite holding less possession than most.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It held.

Union St. Gilloise v Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro LeagueUnion St. Gilloise to win5–0right

Union St. Gilloise were three up by the 65th. Union St. Gilloise had 28 shots to Lommel United's 11, 12 on target.

Auxerre v NiceLigue 1Too close to separate1–0no call

Little between them on chances: 11 shots to 12. M. Diop made 4 saves for Auxerre.

  • Nice get nine shots a game, fewer than most in Ligue 1.
  • Auxerre are without Fofana, Okoh and three others, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 1 of the 2 points showed.

Lorient v ToulouseLigue 1Too close to separate2–2no call

Toulouse levelled it in the 68th. C. Cásseres (Toulouse) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.6.

  • Toulouse have had less of the ball than most sides in Ligue 1.
  • Toulouse take a smaller share of their shots from inside the box than most in Ligue 1.

No call was published; 0 of the 2 points showed.

Cambuur v NEC NijmegenEredivisieNEC Nijmegen to win3–0wrong

Cambuur had 16 shots to NEC Nijmegen's 10, 7 on target. N. Polster made 4 saves for NEC Nijmegen.

Cordoba v AlmeriaSegunda DivisiónCordoba will not win0–2right

Almeria had a man sent off in added time, with it 0-2. Cordoba had 20 shots to Almeria's 4, 4 on target.

Academico Viseu v Vitória SCPrimeira LigaAcademico Viseu will not win2–1wrong

Alioune Ndoye was sent off for Vitória SC in added time. Vitória SC had 22 shots to Academico Viseu's 11, 7 on target.

  • Vitória SC give up ten shots a game, fewer than most in the Primeira Liga.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome also differed from the reading.

Atletico Tucuman v River PlateLiga ProfesionalAtletico Tucuman will not win1–2right

Atletico Tucuman had a man sent off in the 13th, with the match still level and most of the match to play. Atletico Tucuman finished with ten after a red card in the 76th, by which time it was already 0-1.

Friday 11 September 11 of 14

Sevilla v ValenciaLa LigaValencia will not win1–0right

Sevilla won it in the 81st. Sevilla had 13 shots to Valencia's 3, 4 on target.

  • Valencia are without Rioja, Sadiq and four others, already shapes the one-nil lean forecast.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Venezia v FiorentinaSerie AVenezia will not win2–4right

Venezia led in the 22nd and lost it. Fiorentina had 19 shots to Venezia's 11, 10 on target.

  • Venezia control games rather than trade them: more of the ball, more shots, fewer allowed.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not hold. The outcome still matched the reading.

Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04BundesligaFC Schalke 04 will not win1–3wrong

Little between them on chances: 20 shots to 19. L. Karius made 7 saves for FC Schalke 04.

  • Schalke give up chances from close in: a bigger share of the shots they face come from inside the box than most here.
  • Union Berlin are without Ilic, Burke and three others — a big hole in their attack — already in the figures above.
  • Schalke give up 11 shots a game, fewer than most in their division last season.

2 of 3 held; the outcome differed from the reading.

Rennes v MarseilleLigue 1Too close to separate1–0no call

J. de Lange made 6 saves for Marseille. A. Thomasson (Rennes) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.2.

AZ Alkmaar v Willem IIEredivisieAZ Alkmaar to win1–1wrong

AZ Alkmaar led in the 32nd and were pegged back, conceding once in the 81st. AZ Alkmaar had 22 shots to Willem II's 8, 5 on target.

Beşiktaş v Erzurumspor FKSüper LigBeşiktaş to win3–0right

Beşiktaş were three up by the 81st. Beşiktaş had 21 shots to Erzurumspor FK's 8, 6 on target.

  • Beşiktaş get twenty shots a game, more than most in the league.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It held.

APR v JSKCAF Champions LeagueJSK to go through3–0wrong

APR scored first, in the 32nd, and were never behind. APR were three up by the 75th.

AS Sobemap v Enugu RangersCAF Champions LeagueAS Sobemap will not win1–1right

A 1-1 draw. The reading held.

KV Mechelen v AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueKV Mechelen will not win0–1right

Little between them on chances: 15 shots to 14. C. Coosemans made 4 saves for Anderlecht.

West Ham v WrexhamChampionshipWest Ham to win6–0right

West Ham were three up by the 48th. West Ham had 19 shots to Wrexham's 8, 9 on target.

  • Wrexham give up eleven shots a game, fewer than most sides in the Championship.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not hold. The outcome still matched the reading.

Kolos Kovalivka v KarpatyUkrainian Premier LeagueKolos Kovalivka will not win0–2right

Karpaty won it by two. The reading held.

FC Copenhagen v AC HorsensSuperligaFC Copenhagen to win2–0right

FC Copenhagen scored first, in the 7th, and were never behind. V. Dadason (FC Copenhagen) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.2.

Burgos v AD Ceuta FCSegunda DivisiónBurgos to win3–1right

AD Ceuta FC led in the 14th and lost it. AD Ceuta FC had 12 shots to Burgos's 7, 3 on target.

SV Darmstadt 98 v Arminia Bielefeld2. BundesligaArminia Bielefeld will not win2–1right

SV Darmstadt 98 won it in the 86th. J. Kersken made 4 saves for Arminia Bielefeld.

1. FC Nürnberg v Hannover 962. BundesligaHannover 96 will not win2–1right

1. FC Nürnberg had 27 shots to Hannover 96's 9, 8 on target. L. Weinkauf made 6 saves for Hannover 96.

Thursday 10 September 5 of 10
Manchester United v Sabah FAChampions LeagueManchester United to win4–0right

Manchester United were three up by the 45th. Manchester United had 21 shots to Sabah FA's 11, 10 on target.

Bayern München v Bodo/GlimtChampions LeagueBayern München to win5–0right

Bayern München were three up by the 77th. Bodo/Glimt finished with ten after a red card in the 87th, by which time it was already 4-0.

PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar DonetskChampions LeaguePSV Eindhoven to win1–1wrong

Shakhtar Donetsk scored first, in added time; PSV Eindhoven levelled it in the 48th. Little between them on chances: 10 shots to 8.

  • PSV Eindhoven are without Ouaissa, Mauro Junior and five others, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

It held. The match still went the other way.

Fenerbahçe v AS RomaChampions LeagueAS Roma to win1–1wrong

AS Roma led in the 39th and were pegged back, conceding once in the 48th. M. Svilar made 4 saves for AS Roma.

  • Fenerbahçe are without Asensio, Guendouzi and two others, a real gap up front.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It held. The match still went the other way.

Como v RB LeipzigChampions LeagueToo close to separate4–1no call

Como were three up by the 54th. Little between them on chances: 14 shots to 14.

  • RB Leipzig are without Baumgartner, Kone and two others, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

No call was published; what we said held.

Slavia Praha v LensChampions LeagueSlavia Praha will not win2–3right

Slavia Praha had a man sent off in the 49th, with the match still level and most of the match to play. Slavia Praha led in the 51st and lost it.

  • Missing Provod, Holes and seven others leaves Slavia light up front.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It held.

Estrela v SC BragaPrimeira LigaSC Braga to win2–1wrong

SC Braga led in the 5th and lost it, conceding twice between the 45th and the 56th. Little between them on chances: 9 shots to 9.

Panathinaikos v KifisiaSuper League 1Panathinaikos to win3–1right

Kifisia finished with ten after a red card in the 63rd, by which time it was already 1-0. Panathinaikos had 20 shots to Kifisia's 7, 9 on target.

Al Ain v Al-Wasl FCUAE Pro LeagueAl-Wasl FC will not win2–2right

Al Ain levelled it in the 82nd. Al Ain had 21 shots to Al-Wasl FC's 8, 8 on target.

Dubai United v Shabab Al Ahli DubaiUAE Pro LeagueShabab Al Ahli Dubai to win1–1wrong

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai had 17 shots to Dubai United's 7, 4 on target. S. Ezatolahi (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.8.

Al-Jazira v Al NasrUAE Pro LeagueAl-Jazira to win1–1wrong

Al-Jazira led in the 10th and were pegged back, conceding once in the 61st. M. Coulibaly (Al-Jazira) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.7.

Wednesday 9 September 13 of 13
Paris Saint Germain v Slovan BratislavaChampions LeagueParis Saint Germain to win6–1right
Barcelona v FeyenoordChampions LeagueBarcelona to win5–1right
VfB Stuttgart v VikingChampions LeagueVfB Stuttgart to win3–1right
Sporting CP v GalatasarayChampions LeagueSporting CP to win3–1right
Napoli v ArsenalChampions LeagueArsenal to win0–1right
Liverpool v Atletico MadridChampions LeagueAtletico Madrid will not win2–1right
Twente v TelstarEredivisieTwente to win1–0right
Moreirense v BenficaPrimeira LigaBenfica to win0–4right
Rangers v ST MirrenScottish PremiershipRangers to win1–0right
ST Johnstone v CelticScottish PremiershipCeltic to win0–1right
Norwich v BirminghamChampionshipBirmingham will not win2–1right
Charlton v QPRChampionshipToo close to separate0–0no call
Derby v West BromChampionshipToo close to separate0–1no call
Chelsea v LeedsEFL CupChelsea to go through6–3right
Al-Nassr v AbhaSaudi Pro LeagueAl-Nassr to win2–1right
Tuesday 8 September 8 of 9
FC Porto v Manchester CityChampions LeagueManchester City to win0–2right
Real Madrid v InterChampions LeagueToo close to separate2–1no call
Borussia Dortmund v VillarrealChampions LeagueToo close to separate3–2no call
AEK Athens FC v Lask LinzChampions LeagueLask Linz will not win1–0right
Lille v Real BetisChampions LeagueToo close to separate2–3no call
Club Brugge KV v Aston VillaChampions LeagueClub Brugge KV will not win2–3right
NEC Nijmegen v ExcelsiorEredivisieNEC Nijmegen to win2–2wrong
Utrecht v GO Ahead EaglesEredivisieToo close to separate3–3no call
Southampton v SwanseaChampionshipSouthampton to win3–1right
Bolton v West HamChampionshipWest Ham to win2–3right
Watford v PrestonChampionshipToo close to separate2–1no call
Wrexham v BurnleyChampionshipWrexham will not win1–1right
Blackburn v Sheffield UtdChampionshipBlackburn will not win1–2right
Cardiff v Stoke CityChampionshipToo close to separate1–1no call
Bournemouth v LincolnEFL CupBournemouth to go through4–0right
Monday 7 September 6 of 11
Elche v Real SociedadLa LigaToo close to separate2–3no call
Cagliari v LecceSerie ALecce will not win1–0right
Udinese v LazioSerie AUdinese will not win1–2right
Estoril v AroucaPrimeira LigaToo close to separate0–0no call
Göztepe v Gaziantep FKSüper LigGöztepe to win2–4wrong
Rizespor v AlanyasporSüper LigToo close to separate0–1no call
Asteras Tripolis v Iraklis 1908Super League 1Iraklis 1908 will not win0–2wrong
FC Midtjylland v FC NordsjaellandSuperligaFC Midtjylland to win2–2wrong
Sabadell v CordobaSegunda DivisiónCordoba will not win3–2right
Palermo v SampdoriaSerie BPalermo to win3–1right
Pafos v OlympiakosCypriot First DivisionPafos to win0–0wrong
Al-Hilal Saudi FC v NEOMSaudi Pro LeagueAl-Hilal Saudi FC to win0–2wrong
Al Khaleej Saihat v Al RiyadhSaudi Pro LeagueAl Riyadh will not win0–0right
Aris v Omonia NicosiaCypriot First DivisionAris will not win1–4right
Getafe v Celta VigoLa LigaToo close to separate1–1no call
Sunday 6 September 9 of 12
Arsenal v ChelseaPremier LeagueArsenal to win2–1right
Valencia v BarcelonaLa LigaBarcelona to win0–5right
Espanyol v SevillaLa LigaSevilla will not win1–1right
Alaves v OsasunaLa LigaToo close to separate5–2no call
Frosinone v VeneziaSerie AVenezia will not win3–2right
Bologna v SassuoloSerie ASassuolo will not win2–2right
Parma v MonzaSerie AMonza will not win1–1right
Juventus v AC MilanSerie AToo close to separate1–1no call
Eintracht Frankfurt v FC AugsburgBundesligaEintracht Frankfurt to win1–4wrong
Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05BundesligaToo close to separate0–5no call
Marseille v Paris FCLigue 1Marseille to win2–3wrong
Angers v RennesLigue 1Angers will not win1–2right
Estac Troyes v StrasbourgLigue 1Estac Troyes will not win2–6right
Telstar v CambuurEredivisieTelstar to win2–2wrong
ADO Den Haag v Fortuna SittardEredivisieADO Den Haag will not win2–3right
Saturday 5 September 12 of 15
Manchester City v CoventryPremier League1–0no call
Brentford v SunderlandPremier League1–1no call
Nottingham Forest v TottenhamPremier League0–0no call
Newcastle v BournemouthPremier League2–2no call
Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier League2–3no call
Brighton v LeedsPremier League1–1no call
Hull City v Aston VillaPremier League0–0no call
Villarreal v Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga2–3no call
Rayo Vallecano v Racing SantanderLa Liga3–2no call
Athletic Club v Atletico MadridLa Liga3–0no call
Inter v NapoliSerie A3–2no call
Fiorentina v TorinoSerie A1–2no call
AS Roma v AtalantaSerie A2–1no call
Bayer Leverkusen v Union BerlinBundesliga4–0no call
Borussia Mönchengladbach v SV ElversbergBundesliga3–4no call
Friday 4 September 0 of 0
Real Betis v Real Madrides.11–0no call
Ipswich v Liverpoolen.10–2no call
Paris Saint Germain v Monacofr.11–2no call
FC Porto v Moreirensept.12–1no call
Platense v Deportivo Riestraar.11–1no call

The long test

The method, measured before this season.

+11.7%
on RPS, eight leagues
20,754 out-of-sample forecasts across seven top divisions and the Championship. This is the flattering figure.
+3.03%
second tiers and below
The same model, the same method, on lower divisions. t = 7.50, p = 1.3e-06 — the difference is real, not noise.

Published historical evaluation

The table below preserves the figures previously published on Sharper Side. It summarises a historical evaluation, not a live list of subscriber results.

RPS measures the quality of the probabilities assigned to match outcomes; lower is better. The last column compares that score with the competition's usual result frequencies. These figures are not a win rate or a financial return.

CompetitionForecastsRPSvs base rate
Portugal, Primeira Liga1,6020.1855+19.83%
Netherlands, Eredivisie1,5550.1938+16.49%
Italy, Serie A2,9500.1968+14.57%
England, Premier League2,9600.2021+13.42%
Germany, Bundesliga2,3760.2047+11.68%
Spain, La Liga2,9610.1985+11.50%
France, Ligue 12,7510.2089+9.54%
England, Championship3,5990.2213+3.59%
All leagues pooled20,7540.2035+11.69%

Coverage makes a difference

The published evaluation reports a much smaller improvement in lower divisions: 3.03% for second tiers and below, and 0.89% for England's League Two. Results in one group of leagues should not be presented as results for every competition.

The daily record

The daily email includes the previous day's readings reviewed against the results, including the misses. Historical performance does not guarantee future match outcomes.