Sharper Side

Yesterday, checked

What we said, and what happened.

Every reading published for 2026-09-13, beside what actually happened. 41 of 53 came in.

Manchester United v Manchester CityManchester United will not win0–1 · came in
  • Manchester City hold more of the ball than most in this division, create more shots, and allow fewer.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed.

Coventry v BrightonCoventry will not win0–5 · came in
  • Coventry get 17 shots a game, more than most in their division last season.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Levante v BarcelonaBarcelona to win2–4 · came in
  • Barcelona control games rather than trade them: more of the ball than most in this division, more shots, and fewer allowed.

3 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Celta Vigo v MalagaCelta Vigo to win1–1 · missed

Celta Vigo led in the 41st and were pegged back, conceding once in the 83rd. Alfonso Herrero made 4 saves for Malaga.

  • Celta Vigo are without Iglesias, Febas and two others; their attack is measurably thinner than it was.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It held. The match still went the other way.

Real Sociedad v Atletico MadridReal Sociedad will not win0–3 · came in
  • Atlético Madrid win five corners a game, more than most in La Liga.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Getafe v Deportivo La CorunaToo close to separate1–1 · no call made
  • Getafe take nine shots a game, fewer than most sides in La Liga and a constraint on their attacking threat.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 0 of the 1 points showed.

Napoli v BolognaBologna will not win1–0 · came in
  • Bologna are without Orsolini, Zortea and two others, which thins their attack.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Sassuolo v JuventusSassuolo will not win3–2 · missed

Sassuolo scored in the 89th, late enough that there was no time to answer it. Sassuolo won it in added time.

  • Juventus control games rather than trade them: more of the ball, more shots, fewer allowed.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

Lecce v MonzaToo close to separate3–2 · no call made
  • Monza are without Ciurria, Pessina and three others; that hole is already cut into the figures above.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said held.

SV Elversberg v Bayern MünchenBayern München to win1–2 · came in
RB Leipzig v Hamburger SVRB Leipzig to win5–0 · came in
  • RB Leipzig are without Baumgartner and Reitz, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Lille v Estac TroyesLille to win2–0 · came in
  • Estac Troyes are without Ifnaoui, Titi and three others, which thins their attack.
  • Lille give up nine shots a game, fewer than most in Ligue 1, so Estac Troyes face a difficult task to score.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

All 2 showed.

Stade Brestois 29 v Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain to win0–1 · came in
  • Paris Saint Germain control games rather than trade them: more of the ball, more shots, fewer allowed.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Le Mans v LensLe Mans will not win2–2 · came in
  • Le Mans are without Colas, Buades and four others; their attack is already weakened in our forecast.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It held.

PSV Eindhoven v Sparta RotterdamPSV Eindhoven to win4–1 · came in
Excelsior v UtrechtToo close to separate1–2 · no call made
Sheffield Utd v WolvesToo close to separate0–1 · no call made
Club Brugge KV v AntwerpClub Brugge KV to win3–1 · came in
  • Club Brugge KV take 22 shots a game, more than most teams in the Jupiler Pro League.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

1. FC Heidenheim v Holstein Kiel1. FC Heidenheim to win1–0 · came in
  • 1. FC Heidenheim give up 15 shots a game, more than most in their division last season.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

VfL Osnabrück v Hertha BSCToo close to separate1–3 · no call made
Karlsruher SC v Energie CottbusKarlsruher SC to win0–3 · missed

Energie Cottbus were three up by the 62nd. H. Bernat made 7 saves for Karlsruher SC.

  • Karlsruher SC give up sixteen shots a game, more than most in the division.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It showed. The match still went the other way.

Silkeborg v ViborgSilkeborg will not win1–1 · came in
  • Viborg get sixteen shots a game, more than most in the Superliga.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Lyngby v SonderjyskeToo close to separate1–1 · no call made
Sporting Gijon v EldenseSporting Gijon to win0–1 · missed

Guille Rosas (Sporting Gijon) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.5. Wrong on the day, not on the read: Sporting Gijon had 12 shots and put 3 on target.

Viking v Kristiansund BKViking to win8–1 · came in
  • Kristiansund BK have had less of the ball than most in the Eliteserien.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Heerenveen v TelstarTelstar will not win0–0 · came in
Polessya v Livyi BerehPolessya to win1–0 · came in
Simba v Be Forward WanderersSimba to go through6–1 · came in
Randers FC v OdenseOdense will not win1–2 · missed

Randers FC made a change in the 21st, which is early for a substitution. Nikolai Soyset Hopland was sent off for Randers FC in added time.

  • Odense give up seventeen shots a game, more than most in the Superliga.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome also differed from the reading.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v KasımpaşaToo close to separate1–2 · no call made
  • Kasımpaşa get six shots a game, fewer than most in the Süper Lig.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 0 of the 1 points showed.

Genk v GentGent will not win1–1 · came in
  • Genk get nineteen shots a game, more than most sides in the Jupiler Pro League.

3 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Valladolid v OviedoValladolid will not win0–3 · came in
  • Valladolid give up nine shots a game, fewer than most in the Segunda División.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

PEC Zwolle v FeyenoordFeyenoord to win0–7 · came in
  • PEC Zwolle are without Namli, Floranus and two others, already reflected in the figures above.
  • PEC Zwolle take eleven shots a game, fewer than most sides in the Eredivisie, which reflects the strain on their attack.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

All 2 showed.

Rukinzo v Durban CityDurban City to go through1–2 · came in
Nations v DiarraDiarra will not win1–1 · came in
Rivers United v San-PédroRivers United to go through2–2 · not settled
KFUM Oslo v AalesundKFUM Oslo to win2–1 · came in
Kalamata v Volos NFCToo close to separate3–1 · no call made
  • Volos NFC take a smaller share of their shots from inside the box than most in the Super League 1.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

No call was published; 0 of the 1 points showed.

Ham-Kam v MoldeHam-Kam will not win1–5 · came in
  • Molde are without Hestad, Stenevik and six others — a big hole in their attack.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Start v BrannBrann to win2–0 · missed

M. Dyngeland made 4 saves for Brann. O. Toure (Start) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.2.

  • Brann win six corners a game, more than most in the Eliteserien.
  • Brann are without Holm, Gudmundsson and four others, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

All 2 showed. The match still went the other way.

Avellino v PalermoAvellino will not win1–1 · came in
  • Palermo win five corners a game, more than most in Serie B.
  • Palermo get 14 shots a game, more than most in Serie B.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

None of the 2 showed. The outcome still matched the reading.

Mantova v SampdoriaSampdoria will not win2–0 · came in
FC Nordsjaelland v AarhusToo close to separate2–0 · no call made
  • FC Nordsjaelland have had more of the ball than most in this division, while Aarhus's opponents usually have less.
  • Aarhus are without Yakob, Poulsen and three others, which thins their attack — already in the figures above.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Horoya v JS SaouraJS Saoura to go through3–1 · missed

Horoya scored a penalty in the 17th, through Y. Barry. Horoya scored in the 90th, late enough that there was no time to answer it.

Stade Malien Bamako v ColombeToo close to separate0–0 · no call made
Asteras Tripolis v AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC to win1–1 · missed

AEK Athens FC led in the 21st and were pegged back, conceding once in the 31st. AEK Athens FC had 21 shots to Asteras Tripolis's 13, 3 on target.

  • AEK Athens FC control games rather than trade them: more of the ball than most in this division, more shots, and fewer allowed.
  • AEK Athens FC win five corners a game, more than most in the Super League 1.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

All 2 showed. The match still went the other way.

AEK Larnaca v PafosAEK Larnaca will not win0–1 · came in
NEOM v Al-FatehAl-Fateh will not win4–2 · came in
Mallorca v SabadellSabadell will not win2–0 · came in
Zulte Waregem v CharleroiToo close to separate0–1 · no call made
Benfica v GIL VicenteBenfica to win3–1 · came in
  • Benfica control games rather than trade them: more of the ball, more shots, and fewer allowed.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Arouca v Santa ClaraToo close to separate1–2 · no call made
  • Santa Clara give up ten shots a game, fewer than most in the Primeira Liga.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Olympiakos v Omonia 29is MaiouOmonia 29is Maiou will not win3–3 · came in
CS Sfaxien v Shooting StarsCS Sfaxien to win2–0 · came in
Galatasaray v KocaelisporGalatasaray to win1–0 · came in
  • Kocaelispor are without Petkovic and Rivas, which thins their attack.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It held.

Pyramids FC v GOR MahiaPyramids FC to go through5–1 · came in
Amed v BaşakşehirAmed will not win5–0 · missed

An own goal in added time put Amed ahead. Amed were three up by the 55th.

  • Başakşehir get fourteen shots a game, more than most sides in the Süper Lig.

It did not show. The outcome also differed from the reading.

Nouadhibou v VipersToo close to separate0–0 · no call made
RAAL La Louvière v KortrijkKortrijk will not win3–0 · came in
Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF will not win1–1 · came in
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF win four corners a game, fewer than most sides manage in the division.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Sarmiento Junin v Belgrano CordobaSarmiento Junin will not win1–1 · came in
  • Sarmiento Junin give up 13 shots a game, more than most, and this vulnerability could undo their home record.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

It showed.

Tigre v Rosario CentralToo close to separate0–1 · no call made
  • Tigre have had less of the ball than most in the Liga Profesional, limiting their control.

2 other points on the card were not tested by this result.

No call was published; what we said showed.

Al Diriyah v AbhaAl Diriyah to win0–0 · missed

C. Mbemba (Al Diriyah) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 7.3. A draw. Al Diriyah needed a goal more and did not find it.

Al Riyadh v Al KholoodAl Riyadh will not win2–0 · missed

Al Riyadh scored first, in the 65th, and were never behind. R. Abascal (Al Riyadh) was the highest-rated player on the pitch, 8.0.

  • Al Riyadh have had less of the ball than most in the Saudi Pro League.
  • Al Kholood win four corners a game, fewer than most in the Saudi Pro League.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

1 of 2 showed; the outcome differed from the reading.

Kifisia v LevadiakosKifisia will not win0–0 · came in
  • Kifisia win four corners a game, fewer than most in the Super League 1.
  • Kifisia give up eight shots a game, fewer than most sides in the Super League 1.

1 of 2 showed; the outcome matched the reading.

PAOK v Aris ThessalonikisPAOK to win2–0 · came in
  • PAOK give up eight shots a game, fewer than most in the Super League 1.

1 other point on the card was not tested by this result.

It did not show. The outcome still matched the reading.

Panathinaikos v PanetolikosPanathinaikos to win3–0 · came in
Tenerife v LeganesToo close to separate2–0 · no call made
Famalicao v Sporting CPSporting CP to win1–1 · missed

Sporting CP led in the 81st and were pegged back, conceding once in added time. Roméo Beney was sent off for Famalicao in the 87th.

Argentinos JRS v Gimnasia L.P.Argentinos JRS to go through1–1 · not settled

Each reading was published before its kick-off and is scored against exactly what was published, not against a later re-run. Readings declined as too close to call, and ties that finished level with no shoot-out recorded, are counted out of the total rather than as misses.

Why this page is small

It covers one day. That is deliberate — one day is short enough for you to check every line of it against any scores page, which a two-year evaluation is not. The larger measurement is here, and it is the one to judge the model by.

The misses are the point

A record showing only the readings that came in is not a record. Where a match turned on something the analysis could not have known — a sending-off, a penalty, an own goal — that is said here rather than left out.